← EFL League One 2025-26 · Wed, Apr 15, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Durkin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 72% | 1.27 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.50 |
| Northampton win | 11% | 8.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −1.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Northampton −1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Sam Hoskins · Northampton |
| 43' | ⚽ | Liam Walsh · Luton |
| 62' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Northampton |
| 76' | 🟨 | Conor McCarthy · Northampton |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jon Guthrie · Northampton |
| 85' | ⚽ | Kal Naismith · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Keeley · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nigel Cello Lonwijk · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 257.00 | 104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1530.14 | 1307.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.58 | -46.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 61.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 9.20 | 9.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.49 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 27.69 |
| state index | 0.66 | -1.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |