← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 14, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: O. Mackey
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 37% | 2.45 |
| Port Vale win | 34% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Port Vale +0 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Cameron Humphreys · Port Vale |
| 74' | 🟨 | Josh Earl · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 19 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| coach days | 256.00 | 256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1353.18 | 1446.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.90 | -17.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 34.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | -0.70 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.46 | 25.74 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.22 |