← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 14, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 54% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.75 |
| Stevenage win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Bolton −0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Amario Cozier-Duberry · Bolton |
| 30' | ⚽ | Johnny Kenny · Bolton |
| 42' | 🟥 | Daniel Phillips · Stevenage |
| 49' | ⚽ | Amario Cozier-Duberry · Bolton |
| 64' | ⚽ | Daniel Kemp · Stevenage |
| 67' | ⚽ | Rúben Rodrigues · Bolton |
| 81' | ⚽ | Mason Burstow · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Saxon Earley · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 256.00 | 743.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.22 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1530.04 | 1483.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.64 | 22.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.70 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 70.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 60.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -0.96 |
| solidity v1 | -0.12 | 1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 28.94 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.26 |