← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Swabey
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 38% | 2.45 |
| Rotherham win | 36% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Rotherham +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Corey O'Keeffe · Barnsley |
| 37' | ⚽ | Adam Phillips · Barnsley |
| 50' | 🟨 | Vimal Yoganathan · Barnsley |
| 64' | ⚽ | Tom Bradshaw · Barnsley |
| 74' | ⚽ | Tom Bradshaw · Barnsley |
| 88' | 🟨 | Maël de Gevigney · Barnsley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eoghan O'Connell · Barnsley |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Aesseal New York Stadium |
| coach days | 10.00 | 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1356.21 | 1432.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.11 | -30.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 37.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | -0.95 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.22 | 25.82 |
| state index | -1.21 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.22 |