← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Woods
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 53% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 21% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| AFC Wimbledon −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 55' | ⚽ | Kyran Lofthouse · Burton |
| 76' | 🟨 | Charlie Webster · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 253.00 | 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1415.57 | 1380.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.43 | -43.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| league points | 48.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | -0.67 |
| solidity v1 | 0.28 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.65 | 27.41 |
| state index | -0.50 | -1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.30 |