← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Corlett
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 67% | 1.37 |
| Draw | 19% | 4.75 |
| Exeter win | 13% | 7.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −1.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Exeter −1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.48 |
| Under | 36% | 2.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Joe Edwards · Plymouth |
| 47' | ⚽ | Reece Cole · Exeter |
| 62' | 🟨 | Caleb Watts · Plymouth |
| 62' | 🟨 | Kevin McDonald · Exeter |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jack Bycroft · Exeter |
| 66' | 🟨 | Carlos Mendes Gomes · Exeter |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ilmari Niskanen · Exeter |
| 79' | ⚽ | Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth |
| 87' | ⚽ | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
| 90' | ⚽ | Malachi Boateng · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 253.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 3.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1548.97 | 1391.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.24 | -6.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.93 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.82 |
| league points | 62.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 4.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.51 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.44 |
| solidity v1 | 0.18 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.47 | 26.82 |
| state index | 0.60 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.68 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.75 | 1.14 |