← EFL League One 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 50% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| Reading win | 24% | 3.80 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln +0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Reading +0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Ryan One · Lincoln |
| 66' | 🟨 | Dom Jefferies · Lincoln |
| 84' | 🟨 | Finley Burns · Reading |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alfie Lloyd · Lincoln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lewis Wing · Reading |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Moylan · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| coach days | 248.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1528.42 | 1653.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.56 | 17.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.65 |
| league points | 62.00 | 87.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.51 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.00 | 27.30 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -1.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |