← EFL League One 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Russell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Burton win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Mansfield −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Regan Hendry · Mansfield |
| 38' | 🟨 | Louis Reed · Mansfield |
| 52' | 🟨 | Stephen McLaughlin · Mansfield |
| 61' | 🟨 | Tyrese Shade · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| coach days | 248.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.54 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1472.93 | 1412.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.44 | 7.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| league points | 52.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.51 | -1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 29.59 | 26.28 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |