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Leyton Orient 1–2 Huddersfield

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Corlett

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win42%2.20
Draw30%3.10
Leyton Orient win28%3.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leyton Orient +0.2551%1.88
Huddersfield +0.2549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.70
Over45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽ (og)Radinio Balker · Leyton Orient
38'🟨Marcus Harness · Huddersfield
45'⚽Bojan Radulović · Huddersfield
53'🟨Marcus McGuane · Huddersfield
85'🟨Murray Wallace · Huddersfield
90'🟨James Morris · Leyton Orient
90'🟨Theodore Archibald · Leyton Orient
90'⚽Ryan Ledson · Huddersfield

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
6Shots10
2On target4
7Corners3
18Fouls15
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeyton OrientHuddersfield
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.710.65
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBrisbane Road
1.80
coach days248.005.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.403.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.072.15
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.11
dominance (last 5)0.520.49
elo1470.811464.50
elo momentum (last 5)41.80-2.30
eye test v10.21-0.21
eye trend v1-0.200.55
first sub minute (last 10)51.4051.00
form points (last 5)11.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.180.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.710.76
league points50.0058.00
league rank17.0011.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0070.00
possession avg (last 5)51.2049.60
rest days3.803.00
scorer concentration0.380.18
season ppg1.251.45
shot diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.8011.40
skill v1-0.28-0.32
solidity v10.41-0.99
sot against avg (last 5)3.005.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.80
squad age25.4227.87
state index0.26-0.51
sterile dominance v1-0.23-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.200.23
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.531.98
xg for avg (last 5)1.351.59