← EFL League One 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A Dale
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 42% | 2.20 |
| Exeter win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Doncaster +0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
| 42' | ⚽ | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
| 69' | ⚽ | Josh Magennis · Exeter |
| 84' | ⚽ | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 6 | On target | 10 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days |
| 5.00 |
| 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1453.58 | 1511.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.61 | 14.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.60 |
| league points | 43.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -0.83 |
| solidity v1 | -1.57 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| state index | -1.55 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.32 | 2.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.31 |