← EFL League One 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Reeves
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 41% | 2.25 |
| Barnsley win | 34% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Plymouth +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Mathias Ross · Plymouth |
| 16' | ⚽ | — · Plymouth |
| 57' | ⚽ | Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jack Shepherd · Barnsley |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | — · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnsley | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Oakwell |
| coach days | 248.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1448.49 | 1532.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.94 | 22.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.77 |
| league points | 51.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 62.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | -0.05 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 26.71 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 2.60 |