← EFL League One 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 49% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 25% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon +0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Luton +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Kasey Palmer · Luton |
| 28' | 🟨 | Joe Lewis · AFC Wimbledon |
| 59' | ⚽ | Ali Al-Hamadi · Luton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jake Richards · Luton |
| 79' | ⚽ | Jake Richards · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 23 |
| 0 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| coach days | 248.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1394.96 | 1515.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.99 | 23.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.79 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 50.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.74 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 26.47 |
| state index | -0.89 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.79 |