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Stockport 3–0 Wycombe

← EFL League One 2025-26 Β· Fri, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: E Bell

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stockport win45%2.05
Wycombe win29%3.20
Draw26%3.50

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stockport βˆ’0.2552%1.85
Wycombe βˆ’0.2548%2.00

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.67
Under44%2.15

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Odin Bailey · Stockport
30'🟨Jack Diamond · Stockport
41'⚽Isaac Olaofe · Stockport
52'🟨Ethan Pye · Stockport
54'🟨Odin Bailey · Stockport
56'🟨Ewan Henderson · Wycombe
82'⚽Adama Sidibeh · Stockport

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
17Shots12
11On target3
8Corners10
7Fouls9
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricStockportWycombe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.630.78
cards avg (last 5)2.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueEdgeley Park
coach days
245.00
245.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.800.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.942.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.11
dominance (last 5)0.550.49
elo1616.151610.72
elo momentum (last 5)-6.53-11.99
eye test v10.040.61
eye trend v10.27-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)54.8050.10
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.50
keeper form v10.630.65
league points63.0059.00
league rank5.008.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6073.20
possession avg (last 5)61.8047.20
rest days5.965.96
scorer concentration0.410.18
season ppg1.661.48
shot diff avg (last 5)2.600.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.0013.80
skill v10.84-0.58
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.005.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.80
state index0.370.15
sterile dominance v10.94-0.60
threat rate (last 10)0.210.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.30
threat rate (last 5)0.210.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40