← EFL League One 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 48% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.10 |
| Rotherham win | 23% | 4.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rotherham +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Stevenage +0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Daniel Phillips · Stevenage |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lewis Freestone · Stevenage |
| 51' | 🟨 | Daniel Gore · Rotherham |
| 62' | 🟨 | Reece James · Rotherham |
| 88' | 🟨 | Daniel Gore · Rotherham |
| 88' | 🟥 | Daniel Gore · Rotherham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harvey White · Stevenage |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charlie Goode · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Aesseal New York Stadium |
| coach days | 2.00 | 732.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1363.89 | 1465.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.85 | 8.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.30 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 36.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 59.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | -1.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.14 | 29.18 |
| state index | -1.15 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |