← EFL League One 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Bolton win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Plymouth −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
| 43' | 🟥 | John McAtee · Bolton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rúben Rodrigues · Bolton |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Johnny Kenny · Bolton |
| 57' | ⚽ | Ronan Curtis · Plymouth |
| 70' | ⚽ (og) | Malachi Boateng · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 245.00 | 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 3.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1544.79 | 1530.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.78 | 3.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.64 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 59.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.51 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.99 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.26 | 26.76 |
| state index | 0.75 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.60 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |