← EFL League One 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 65% | 1.41 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.33 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 13% | 7.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −1.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Lincoln −1.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
| 59' | 🟨 | Joe Lewis · AFC Wimbledon |
| 61' | 🟨 | Antwoine Hackford · AFC Wimbledon |
| 76' | 🟨 | Nathan Bishop · AFC Wimbledon |
| 88' | ⚽ | Ryan One · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Omar Bugiel · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | LNER stadium |
| coach days |
| 245.00 |
| 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1719.53 | 1498.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.32 | -23.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.62 |
| league points | 84.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 5.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.15 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.68 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | 1.28 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.52 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |