← EFL League One 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K Dowle
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Barnsley win | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Barnsley −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Luca Connell · Barnsley |
| 60' | ⚽ | Charlie Webster · Burton |
| 76' | 🟨 | Alex Hartridge · Burton |
| 86' | 🟨 | Leo Farrell · Barnsley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marc Roberts · Barnsley |
| 90' | ⚽ | David McGoldrick · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days |
| 245.00 |
| 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1497.94 | 1516.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.87 | -5.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.95 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 46.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |