← EFL League One 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Coy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford win | 67% | 1.37 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.33 |
| Northampton win | 12% | 8.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton −1.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Bradford −1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Stephen Humphrys · Bradford |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jenson Metcalfe · Bradford |
| 77' | 🟨 | Elliott Moore · Northampton |
| 86' | 🟨 | Max Power · Bradford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matthew Pennington · Bradford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bradford | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Valley Parade |
| coach days | 245.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1462.59 | 1325.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.16 | -34.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 65.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.63 | 27.44 |
| state index | -0.01 | -1.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |