← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 39% | 2.35 |
| Leyton Orient win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Leyton Orient +0 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.85 |
| Under | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | 🟨 | Daniel Happe · Leyton Orient |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jack McMillan · Exeter |
| 83' | 🟨 | Theodore Archibald · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Aitchison · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | William Forrester · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 239.00 | 239.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1381.53 | 1471.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.60 | 48.36 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| league points | 42.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 65.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -0.84 |
| solidity v1 | -1.73 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.74 | 25.96 |
| state index | -1.77 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.33 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.38 |