← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan win | 41% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.00 |
| Exeter win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Wigan −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Joe Taylor · Wigan |
| 29' | 🟨 | Johnly Yfeko · Exeter |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jack McMillan · Exeter |
| 85' | ⚽ | Fraser Murray · Wigan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raphael Rodrigues · Wigan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danny Andrew · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wigan | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Brick Community Stadium |
| coach days | 79.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 3.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1424.80 | 1392.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.32 | -33.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 42.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.49 | -1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.20 | 26.08 |
| state index | -0.17 | -1.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.06 | 2.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.21 |