← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 49% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| Reading win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Stevenage −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Jamie Reid · Stevenage |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jeriel Dorsett · Reading |
| 70' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Reading |
| 85' | ⚽ | Daniel Kemp · Stevenage |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Phillips · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Lamex Stadium |
| coach days | 719.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 1.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1455.26 | 1528.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.59 | 14.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 57.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.31 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.99 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 29.27 | 27.64 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 2.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.38 |