← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Corlett
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 61% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 23% | 3.90 |
| Northampton win | 16% | 5.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton −1 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Mansfield −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Will Evans · Mansfield |
| 11' | 🟨 | Jack Perkins · Northampton |
| 24' | 🟨 | Jordan Willis · Northampton |
| 34' | 🟨 | Terry Taylor · Northampton |
| 48' | ⚽ | Will Evans · Mansfield |
| 57' | 🟨 | Adedeji Oshilaja · Mansfield |
| 62' | ⚽ | Lucas Akins · Mansfield |
| 73' | ⚽ | Cameron McGeehan · Northampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lucas Akins · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| coach days | 232.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.50 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1446.88 | 1334.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.17 | -37.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 46.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 29.09 | 28.22 |
| state index | -0.17 | -1.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |