← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Hicks
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 69% | 1.33 |
| Draw | 19% | 4.75 |
| Rotherham win | 12% | 7.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rotherham −1.5 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Lincoln −1.5 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ (og) | Ted Cann · Lincoln |
| 34' | ⚽ | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 45' | ⚽ | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zak Jules · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 4 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | LNER stadium |
| coach days | 232.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1645.81 | 1368.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.73 | -4.07 |
| eye test v1 | 1.19 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 43.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 81.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -0.68 |
| solidity v1 | 1.25 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 25.59 |
| state index | 1.01 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.36 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.70 | 1.92 |