← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport win | 37% | 2.50 |
| Luton win | 36% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Luton +0 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Emilio Lawrence · Luton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ben Osborn · Stockport |
| 62' | 🟨 | Adetayo Edun · Stockport |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ali Al-Hamadi · Luton |
| 78' | ⚽ | Oliver Norwood · Stockport |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Stockport |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 232.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1510.06 | 1524.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.84 | -30.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| league points | 54.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 66.60 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 0.59 |
| solidity v1 | -0.87 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 27.30 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.85 | 1.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 0.96 |