← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Mar 17, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: E. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 42% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| Stevenage win | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Plymouth −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over | 40% | 2.35 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Lewis Freestone · Stevenage |
| 40' | 🟨 | Alex Mitchell · Plymouth |
| 57' | ⚽ | Mathias Ross · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Xavier Amaechi · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jamie Reid · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days |
| 228.00 |
| 715.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1551.33 | 1539.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.29 | 7.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.61 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| league points | 53.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 59.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.05 | -2.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.55 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.16 | -1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |