← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Mar 17, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 44% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| Reading win | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Reading −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | George Evans · Burton |
| 33' | ⚽ | Kami Doyle · Reading |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lewis Wing · Reading |
| 88' | ⚽ | Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Reading |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jake Beesley · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 228.00 | 228.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.23 | 1.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1420.00 | 1519.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.61 | 2.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| league points | 43.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.49 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.97 | 27.09 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |