← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Mar 17, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Darren Drysdale, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 60% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.10 |
| Doncaster win | 18% | 5.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster −1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Bolton −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under | 40% | 2.35 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Robbie Gotts · Doncaster |
| 54' | 🟨 | Matthew Pearson · Doncaster |
| 58' | 🟨 | Kyle Dempsey · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eoin Toal · Bolton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Neill Byrne · Doncaster |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jamie Sterry · Doncaster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 228.00 | 228.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.83 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1549.68 | 1408.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.95 | 2.75 |
| eye test v1 | 1.59 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 65.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.14 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.92 | 29.77 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |