← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Mar 17, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Dale
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 42% | 2.20 |
| Leyton Orient win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| AFC Wimbledon −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.65 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Dominic Ballard · Leyton Orient |
| 39' | ⚽ | — · AFC Wimbledon |
| 45' | ⚽ | — · AFC Wimbledon |
| 48' | ⚽ | Dominic Ballard · Leyton Orient |
| 53' | 🟨 | Daniel Happe · Leyton Orient |
| 57' | ⚽ | James Morris · Leyton Orient |
| 70' | ⚽ | Dominic Ballard · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcus Browne · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 228.00 | 228.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1424.27 | 1437.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.99 | 8.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.40 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| league points | 49.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.57 | 25.26 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |