← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Hicks
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wycombe win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Luton win | 28% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wycombe −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Luton −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Kal Naismith · Luton |
| 39' | ⚽ | Kasey Palmer · Luton |
| 45' | 🟨 | George Saville · Luton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Luke Harris · Wycombe |
| 70' | 🟨 | Daniel Harvie · Wycombe |
| 84' | 🟨 | André Vidigal · Wycombe |
| 90' | ⚽ | Junior Quitirna · Wycombe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wycombe | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Adams Park |
| coach days | 225.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1537.03 | 1491.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.73 | -30.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 53.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.62 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.53 |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.28 | 1.71 |