← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bourne
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 48% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 22% | 4.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Stevenage −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Alistair Smith · AFC Wimbledon |
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Jamie Reid · Stevenage |
| 54' | 🟨 | Daniel Kemp · Stevenage |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Freestone · Stevenage |
| 90' | 🟨 | Myles Hippolyte · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.60 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Lamex Stadium |
| coach days |
| 712.00 |
| 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1531.11 | 1535.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.69 | 28.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 68.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 54.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | -0.35 |
| solidity v1 | 0.53 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.96 |