← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 41% | 2.25 |
| Reading win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Plymouth +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Aribim Pepple · Plymouth |
| 3' | ⚽ | Randell Williams · Reading |
| 6' | ⚽ | Alex Mitchell · Plymouth |
| 18' | ⚽ | Paudie O’Connor · Reading |
| 31' | 🟨 | Alex Mitchell · Plymouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ryan Nyambe · Reading |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ronan Curtis · Plymouth |
| 67' | ⚽ | Caleb Watts · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| coach days | 225.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1591.54 | 1548.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.54 | 54.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 46.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 54.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 61.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | -1.12 |
| solidity v1 | -0.80 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.80 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -2.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.15 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.84 |