← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Swabey
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 39% | 2.35 |
| Northampton win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton +0 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Northampton +0 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.65 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Terry Taylor · Northampton |
| 20' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Northampton |
| 32' | ⚽ | Jake Beesley · Burton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Bradley Collins · Burton |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kgagelo Chauke · Burton |
| 89' | ⚽ | Kyran Lofthouse · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 72.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 5.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1437.32 | 1490.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.65 | 5.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| league points | 35.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -1.21 |
| solidity v1 | -1.06 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | -1.07 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.14 |