← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Speedie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 55% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.75 |
| Exeter win | 20% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter +0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Cardiff +0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Rubin Colwill · Cardiff |
| 34' | ⚽ | Rubin Colwill · Cardiff |
| 68' | ⚽ | Alex Robertson · Cardiff |
| 86' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 30 |
| 1 | On target | 10 |
| 0 | Corners | 10 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 225.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1410.91 | 1586.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.68 | -20.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 42.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 68.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | 1.34 |
| solidity v1 | -1.15 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 28.24 |
| state index | -1.33 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | 1.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.61 |