← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 52% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.75 |
| Rotherham win | 23% | 4.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Rotherham +0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Ethan Erhahon · Bolton |
| 38' | 🟨 | Joe Rafferty · Rotherham |
| 39' | ⚽ | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
| 42' | ⚽ | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
| 48' | 🟨 | Brandon Cover · Rotherham |
| 51' | ⚽ | Chris Forino · Bolton |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ted Cann · Rotherham |
| 83' | ⚽ | Sam Dalby · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 10 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Aesseal New York Stadium |
| coach days | 225.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 3.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1457.25 | 1625.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.82 | 27.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.10 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.75 |
| league points | 35.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 1.75 |
| solidity v1 | 0.91 | -1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 2.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 2.85 |