← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 50% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| Stockport win | 24% | 3.80 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Lincoln −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Jack Moylan · Lincoln |
| 14' | 🟨 | Ryley Towler · Lincoln |
| 68' | ⚽ | Jack Diamond · Stockport |
| 70' | 🟨 | Thomas Hamer · Lincoln |
| 78' | 🟨 | Oliver Norwood · Stockport |
| 87' | ⚽ | Tendayi Darikwa · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alfie Lloyd · Lincoln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alfie Lloyd · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Stockport |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | LNER stadium |
| coach days |
| 225.00 |
| 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1709.65 | 1611.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.34 | -41.87 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.61 |
| league points | 77.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | 1.76 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | 1.52 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.86 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.19 | 1.15 |