← EFL League One 2025-26 · Wed, Mar 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Swabey
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 40% | 2.30 |
| Blackpool win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackpool −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| AFC Wimbledon −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.65 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Ryan Johnson · AFC Wimbledon |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Mathew Stevens · AFC Wimbledon |
| 63' | ⚽ | Niall Ennis · Blackpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | Zack Nelson · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Omar Bugiel · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| coach days | 222.00 | 222.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1416.50 | 1435.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.30 | -19.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -1.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.00 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 46.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 3.32 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 28.60 | 27.06 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |