← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Mar 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 55% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.90 |
| Exeter win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln +0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Exeter +0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Jack Bycroft · Exeter |
| 32' | ⚽ | Thomas Hamer · Lincoln |
| 36' | 🟨 | Tendayi Darikwa · Lincoln |
| 77' | 🟨 | Tom Bayliss · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Magennis · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sonny Bradley · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dom Jefferies · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 221.00 | 221.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1416.64 | 1635.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.52 | 39.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 1.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| league points | 42.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.60 |
| state index | -1.13 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -2.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |