← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Parkinson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 50% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| Doncaster win | 25% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Plymouth −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Joe Edwards · Plymouth |
| 22' | ⚽ | Elliot Lee · Doncaster |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jack Senior · Doncaster |
| 42' | 🟨 | Harry Clifton · Doncaster |
| 45' | ⚽ | Aribim Pepple · Plymouth |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jack Mackenzie · Plymouth |
| 60' | 🟨 | Aribim Pepple · Plymouth |
| 72' | 🟨 | Caleb Watts · Plymouth |
| 73' | 🟨 | Luke Molyneux · Doncaster |
| 74' | ⚽ | Herbie Kane · Plymouth |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jamie Sterry · Doncaster |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Ashby-Hammond · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days |
| 218.00 |
| 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1522.07 | 1506.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.84 | 0.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.17 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.30 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| league points | 46.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -0.58 |
| solidity v1 | -0.29 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.87 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.95 |