← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Mackey
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 54% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
| Reading win | 21% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Luton −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Reading |
| 21' | 🟨 | Liam Fraser · Reading |
| 44' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Reading |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nigel Cello Lonwijk · Luton |
| 53' | ⚽ | George Saville · Luton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 80' | 🟨 | Derrick Williams · Reading |
| 81' | ⚽ | Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Reading |
| 84' | ⚽ | Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Reading |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Pereira · Reading |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 218.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1503.90 | 1593.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.07 | 23.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 47.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | -0.70 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.11 | — |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 63.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.11 |