← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Hicks
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 39% | 2.35 |
| Stevenage win | 32% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage −0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Burton −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.48 |
| Over | 36% | 2.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Jamie Reid · Stevenage |
| 49' | 🟨 | Harvey White · Stevenage |
| 69' | 🟨 | Carl Piergianni · Stevenage |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jake Beesley · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Houghton · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 218.00 | 705.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.21 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1415.13 | 1456.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.98 | 0.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| league points | 40.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | -0.67 |
| solidity v1 | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.81 |