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Bolton 3–2 Wycombe

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Corlett

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bolton win50%1.86
Draw26%3.60
Wycombe win25%3.70

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wycombe −0.550%1.93
Bolton −0.550%1.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.80
Under47%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'⚽Cauley Woodrow · Wycombe
41'⚽Luke Harris · Wycombe
56'🟨Jordi Osei-Tutu · Bolton
56'🟨Taylor Allen · Wycombe
58'🟨Daniel Harvie · Wycombe
71'🟨Caolan Boyd-Munce · Wycombe
76'🟨Johnny Kenny · Bolton
87'🟨Cauley Woodrow · Wycombe
88'⚽Rúben Rodrigues · Bolton
90'🟨Corey Blackett-Taylor · Bolton
90'⚽Mason Burstow · Bolton
90'⚽Corey Blackett-Taylor · Bolton

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
16Shots12
8On target9
6Corners4
11Fouls9
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBoltonWycombe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.800.62
cards avg (last 5)2.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueToughsheet Community Stadium
coach days218.00218.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.21
corner diff avg (last 5)4.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)7.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.901.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.11
dominance (last 5)0.590.57
elo1544.551545.34
elo momentum (last 5)24.9220.30
eye test v11.370.82
eye trend v10.08-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)63.5052.60
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.32
h2 goals (last 10)1.301.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.50
keeper form v10.700.69
league points61.0053.00
league rank4.009.00
matches since blank8.006.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0072.40
possession avg (last 5)60.4053.20
rest days7.003.80
scorer concentration0.190.19
season ppg1.741.51
shot diff avg (last 5)5.403.60
shots for avg (last 5)17.8013.20
skill v11.420.44
solidity v1-1.000.95
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.705.20
sot for avg (last 3)7.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.405.80
squad age26.5127.06
state index0.530.41
sterile dominance v10.210.07
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.310.22
threat rate (last 5)0.300.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60
xg against avg (last 5)2.090.90
xg for avg (last 5)2.582.28