← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Exeter win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Exeter −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.65 |
| Under | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | David McGoldrick · Barnsley |
| 16' | ⚽ | Vimal Yoganathan · Barnsley |
| 23' | 🟨 | Ryan Rydel · Exeter |
| 29' | 🟨 | Jack Shepherd · Barnsley |
| 75' | ⚽ | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnsley | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Oakwell |
| coach days | 218.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 3.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1452.93 | 1424.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.59 | -20.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 44.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 0.17 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.14 |