← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Mar 3, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Howard
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Burton win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Exeter −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
| 64' | ⚽ | Udoka Godwin-Malife · Burton |
| 73' | ⚽ | Josh Magennis · Exeter |
| 74' | 🟨 | John Joshua Mckiernan · Burton |
| 87' | 🟨 | George Evans · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days |
| 214.00 |
| 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 5.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1511.32 | 1498.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.22 | 24.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 41.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 62.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |