← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Chilowicz
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wycombe win | 52% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
| Burton win | 20% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −0.75 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Wycombe −0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Caolan Boyd-Munce · Wycombe |
| 20' | 🟨 | Ewan Henderson · Wycombe |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luke Harris · Wycombe |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andy Cannon · Burton |
| 55' | 🟨 | Will Norris · Wycombe |
| 81' | ⚽ | Luke Harris · Wycombe |
| 82' | ⚽ | Nathan Lowe · Wycombe |
| 85' | 🟨 | Toby Sibbick · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wycombe | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Adams Park |
| 211.00 |
| 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 5.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1603.15 | 1508.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.44 | 23.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | — |
| league points | 47.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | -1.02 |
| solidity v1 | 1.05 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.24 | 1.19 |