← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jamie O'Connor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport win | 36% | 2.55 |
| Stevenage win | 35% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Stevenage +0 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Josh Stokes · Stockport |
| 29' | ⚽ | Adama Sidibeh · Stockport |
| 35' | ⚽ | Carl Piergianni · Stevenage |
| 55' | 🟨 | Louis Thompson · Stevenage |
| 57' | ⚽ | Matt Phillips · Stevenage |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jack Diamond · Stockport |
| 74' | 🟨 | Adama Sidibeh · Stockport |
| 83' | 🟨 | Brad Hills · Stockport |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ethan Pye · Stockport |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Stockport |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Lamex Stadium |
| coach days |
| 698.00 |
| 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1522.25 | 1622.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.62 | -26.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 48.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.19 |