← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Z. Kennard-Kettle
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 44% | 2.10 |
| Rotherham win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Rotherham +0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Joe Rafferty · Rotherham |
| 15' | 🟨 | Jamal Baptiste · Rotherham |
| 28' | 🟨 | Wes Harding · Plymouth |
| 29' | 🟨 | Josh Benson · Rotherham |
| 32' | 🟨 | ArJany Martha · Rotherham |
| 42' | 🟨 | Julio Pleguezuelo · Plymouth |
| 75' | 🟨 | Daniel Gore · Rotherham |
| 77' | 🟨 | Joe Rafferty · Rotherham |
| 81' | 🟨 | Joe Edwards · Plymouth |
| 81' | 🟨 | Matthew Sorinola · Plymouth |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jack Mackenzie · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 20 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Aesseal New York Stadium |
| coach days |
| 211.00 |
| 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1453.38 | 1532.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.00 | 47.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 1.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 40.90 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 31.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | -0.81 |
| solidity v1 | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 9.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.40 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -2.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 2.03 |