← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| AFC Wimbledon −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Jon Russell · Mansfield |
| 14' | ⚽ | James Tilley · AFC Wimbledon |
| 29' | ⚽ | Jon Russell · Mansfield |
| 54' | 🟨 | Stephen McLaughlin · Mansfield |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Mathew Stevens · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adedeji Oshilaja · Mansfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Omar Bugiel · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| coach days | 211.00 | 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.38 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1518.44 | 1513.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.02 | 30.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.77 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.30 | 67.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 39.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -0.71 |
| solidity v1 | 0.85 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.65 |