← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 65% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.33 |
| Blackpool win | 14% | 6.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackpool −1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Lincoln −1.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Josh Bowler · Blackpool |
| 36' | 🟨 | Tom Bloxham · Blackpool |
| 38' | ⚽ | Conor McGrandles · Lincoln |
| 51' | 🟨 | Tendayi Darikwa · Lincoln |
| 75' | 🟨 | George Honeyman · Blackpool |
| 78' | ⚽ | Robert Street · Lincoln |
| 85' | ⚽ | Dom Jefferies · Lincoln |
| 89' | ⚽ | Ryan One · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zachary Ashworth · Blackpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | LNER stadium |
| coach days | 211.00 | 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1610.08 | 1446.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.44 | -12.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 68.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.92 |
| solidity v1 | 1.23 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.80 | 26.08 |
| state index | 1.08 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.33 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.29 |