← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 44% | 2.10 |
| Doncaster win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Cardiff +0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Alex Robertson · Cardiff |
| 45' | 🟨 | Robbie Gotts · Doncaster |
| 46' | ⚽ | Dylan Lawlor · Cardiff |
| 56' | ⚽ | Cian Ashford · Cardiff |
| 77' | 🟨 | George Broadbent · Doncaster |
| 90' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Doncaster | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Eco-Power Stadium |
| coach days |
| 211.00 |
| 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 4.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1524.43 | 1595.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.55 | 15.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.88 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 39.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 2.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | 0.59 |
| solidity v1 | 0.25 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 28.24 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.29 |