← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Peterboro win | 39% | 2.35 |
| Northampton win | 36% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Peterboro +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Northampton +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Jake Evans · Northampton |
| 44' | ⚽ | Tom Eaves · Northampton |
| 52' | ⚽ | — · Peterboro |
| 60' | 🟨 | Declan Frith · Peterboro |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jimmy Morgan · Peterboro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Peterboro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.07 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 58.00 | 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1360.09 | 1453.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.16 | 3.31 |
| eye test v1 | -1.49 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 34.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -1.60 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | -1.04 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.28 | 1.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.99 |